Item:

The New York Times stated authoritatively "Colombia produces more than 90 percent of the cocaine and about two-thirds of the heroin that reaches the United States." (July 2, 2000, Review of the Week, p.10). Its source was the US government's Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

Query:

Since the DEA by its own admission detects and seizes only a small fraction of the cocaine and heroin that reaches the United States--possibly less than one percent-- how is it possible for it to provide with such precision statistics about the vast majority of drugs it never finds?

How can it possibly determine for the sake of the New York Times and other interested parties that over 90 percent of the cocaine and 66.67 percent of the heroin come from Colombia?  

Answer:

The New York Times stated authoritatively "Colombia produces more than 90 percent of the cocaine and about two-thirds of the heroin that reaches the United States." (July 2, 2000, Review of the Week, p.10). Its source was the US government's Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). But since the DEA by its own admission detects and seizes only a small fraction of the cocaine and heroin that reaches the United States--possibly less than one percent-- how is it possible for it to provide with such precision statistics about the vast majority of drugs it never finds?

Answer: The DEA uses a "Signature Program" that analyzes traces of chemicals in the heroin and cocaine in purchases and seizes and associates them with processes commonly used in various countries. To extrapolate from these samples, it assumes that its purchases and seizures of drugs are completely random. Problem: The purchase and seizure of drugs by the DEA is not entirely random. The small sample of drugs the DEA buys and seizes is based on their informants in, and surveillance of, pre-selected channels of distribution. The results may therefore reflect no more than the channels the DEA has chosen to penetrate and watch---in this case, Colombia.


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