Item:
The
New York Times stated authoritatively "Colombia
produces more than 90 percent of the cocaine and about
two-thirds of the heroin that reaches the United States."
(July 2, 2000, Review of the Week, p.10). Its
source was the US government's Drug Enforcement Administration
(DEA).
Query:
Since
the DEA by its own admission detects and seizes only
a small fraction of the cocaine and heroin that reaches
the United States--possibly less than one percent--
how is it possible for it to provide with such precision
statistics about the vast majority of drugs it never
finds?
How
can it possibly determine for the sake of the New York
Times and other interested parties that over 90 percent
of the cocaine and 66.67 percent of the heroin come
from Colombia?
Answer:
The
New York Times stated authoritatively "Colombia produces
more than 90 percent of the cocaine and about two-thirds
of the heroin that reaches the United States." (July
2, 2000, Review of the Week, p.10). Its source was the
US government's Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).
But since the DEA by its own admission detects and seizes
only a small fraction of the cocaine and heroin that
reaches the United States--possibly less than one percent--
how is it possible for it to provide with such precision
statistics about the vast majority of drugs it never
finds?
Answer:
The DEA uses a "Signature Program" that analyzes traces
of chemicals in the heroin and cocaine in purchases
and seizes and associates them with processes commonly
used in various countries. To extrapolate from these
samples, it assumes that its purchases and seizures
of drugs are completely random. Problem: The purchase
and seizure of drugs by the DEA is not entirely random.
The small sample of drugs the DEA buys and seizes is
based on their informants in, and surveillance of, pre-selected
channels of distribution. The results may therefore
reflect no more than the channels the DEA has chosen
to penetrate and watch---in this case, Colombia.
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